March 2026
AI Predicts Bitcoin
March 2026 Report |
Perplexity dominated April's accuracy leaderboard at 95.1% — well clear of the rest of the field. Mistral remains the most controversial voice — its 2030 base case sits 145% above the AI consensus of $285,562. Bitcoin climbed from $67,008 to $75,909 across the month — a +13.3% move. And the next halving is now just 697 days away (~23 months) — sell pressure keeps tightening as the cycle progresses.
This is a first: 7-day accuracy scores just unlocked 21 days ago. Each model now has 22 graded predictions in this bracket — early data, but the longer-horizon leaderboard has begun.
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🏆 Model of the Month
Who's leading on accuracy
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📊 Leaderboard
All 10 models ranked
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🎯 AI Consensus
Predictions for 2027–2050
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⛏ Halving Countdown
Days until next halving
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Every day at 06:00 UTC each model gets the same prompt: predict where BTC will be in 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days. Once the actual price arrives, we score them. April's winner pulled away from the pack — here's how the leaderboard ended the month.
| 🏆 |
Model of the month
Perplexity
|
95.1%
A
|
Accuracy is calculated as 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). A score of 95% means the prediction was within ~5% of the real price on the target day. We grade A (95%+), B (85–95%), and C (below 85%). 30/90/180/360-day scores unlock progressively as predictions reach their target dates — first 30-day scores unlock May 1.
7-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Perplexity | 95.1% | A |
| 🥈 | Qwen | 89.2% | B |
| 🥉 | ChatGPT | 89.2% | B |
| 4 | Command R | 86.0% | B |
| 5 | DeepSeek | 85.3% | B |
| 6 | Claude | 84.7% | C |
| 7 | Grok | 77.9% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 60.7% | C |
| 9 | Llama | 59.3% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 18.1% | C |
Each model gives a low / base / high case for every year from 2027 to 2100. The "consensus" below is the trimmed mean of the base cases — we drop the top and bottom predictions and average the rest, which keeps a single outlier (looking at you, Gemini) from skewing the picture. The most bullish and most conservative columns show the widest views in the room.
| Year | Consensus | Most Bullish | Most Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $162,500 | Mistral · $250,000 | Llama · $120,000 |
| 2030 | $285,562 | Mistral · $700,000 | ChatGPT · $170,000 |
| 2035 | $552,555 | Mistral · $1.90M | ChatGPT · $120,000 |
| 2040 | $956,949 | Mistral · $4.00M | ChatGPT · $70,000 |
| 2050 | $1.48M | Grok · $4.30M | ChatGPT · $5,000 |
Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin block reward halves — cutting new BTC supply in half overnight. The last halving was April 2024, dropping the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, the year following a halving has produced major bull runs as supply tightens. The next one is estimated for March 2028.
|
Month Start
$67,008
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Month End
$75,909
|
Month Change
+13.3%
|
No significant prediction changes this month (threshold: ±5%).
| Year | Consensus | Multiple from today |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $162,500 | 2.1x |
| 2030 | $285,562 | 3.8x |
| 2035 | $552,555 | 7.3x |
| 2040 | $956,949 | 12.6x |
| 2050 | $1.48M | 19.5x |
| Model | Variance | Unique values |
|---|---|---|
| Qwen | 0.0% Stable | 1 / 27 days |
| Command R | 2.5% Stable | 2 / 29 days |
| Grok | 11.2% Moderate | 14 / 29 days |
| DeepSeek | 13.1% Moderate | 6 / 29 days |
| Perplexity | 13.9% Moderate | 4 / 27 days |
| Llama | 17.8% Moderate | 7 / 18 days |
| Claude | 22.9% Volatile | 9 / 29 days |
| ChatGPT | 27.2% Volatile | 7 / 29 days |
| Gemini | 27.5% Volatile | 9 / 29 days |
| Mistral | 34.3% Volatile | 13 / 28 days |
Latest predictions as of 2026-04-29 — graded automatically on target date
|
Gemini
$135,000
|
Mistral
$125,000
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Grok
$100,000
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DeepSeek
$87,500
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
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Perplexity
$81,000
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Claude
$68,000
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Llama
$42,000
|
|
Perplexity
$300,000
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Gemini
$160,000
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Mistral
$125,000
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Grok
$100,000
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Qwen
$85,000
|
|
DeepSeek
$85,000
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Command R
$85,000
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ChatGPT
$85,000
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Claude
$72,000
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Llama
$62,000
|
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Mistral
$125,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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Perplexity
$100,000
|
Grok
$90,000
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
|
DeepSeek
$85,000
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Command R
$85,000
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ChatGPT
$85,000
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Llama
$62,000
|
Claude
$62,000
|
|
Mistral
$125,000
|
DeepSeek
$105,000
|
Llama
$90,000
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Grok
$90,000
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
|
Gemini
$85,000
|
Command R
$85,000
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
|
Claude
$67,500
|
Perplexity
$57,000
|
|
Mistral
$125,000
|
Llama
$120,000
|
Command R
$120,000
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DeepSeek
$95,000
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Claude
$95,000
|
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Perplexity
$85,595
|
Qwen
$85,000
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Grok
$85,000
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Gemini
$85,000
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
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