May 2026
AI Predicts Bitcoin
May 2026 Report |
Perplexity dominated April's accuracy leaderboard at 94.2% — well clear of the rest of the field. Gemini remains the most controversial voice — its 2030 base case sits 139% above the AI consensus of $250,625. Bitcoin fell from $76,286 to $72,246 across the month — a -5.3% move. And the next halving is now just 664 days away (~22 months) — sell pressure keeps tightening as the cycle progresses.
This is a first: 30-day accuracy scores just unlocked 31 days ago. Each model now has 32 graded predictions in this bracket — early data, but the longer-horizon leaderboard has begun.
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🏆 Model of the Month
Who's leading on accuracy
|
📊 Leaderboard
All 10 models ranked
|
|
🎯 AI Consensus
Predictions for 2027–2050
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⛏ Halving Countdown
Days until next halving
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Every day at 06:00 UTC each model gets the same prompt: predict where BTC will be in 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days. Once the actual price arrives, we score them. April's winner pulled away from the pack — here's how the leaderboard ended the month.
| 🏆 |
Model of the month
Perplexity
|
94.2%
B
|
Accuracy is calculated as 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). A score of 95% means the prediction was within ~5% of the real price on the target day. We grade A (95%+), B (85–95%), and C (below 85%). 30/90/180/360-day scores unlock progressively as predictions reach their target dates — first 30-day scores unlock May 1.
7-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Perplexity | 94.2% | B |
| 🥈 | ChatGPT | 90.1% | B |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 90.1% | B |
| 4 | DeepSeek | 86.8% | B |
| 5 | Claude | 85.7% | B |
| 6 | Command R | 84.5% | C |
| 7 | Grok | 71.1% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 64.7% | C |
| 9 | Llama | 56.6% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 12.9% | C |
30-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Qwen | 90.8% | B |
| 🥈 | ChatGPT | 90.8% | B |
| 🥉 | Command R | 89.7% | B |
| 4 | Claude | 89.6% | B |
| 5 | Perplexity | 85.3% | B |
| 6 | Llama | 76.2% | C |
| 7 | Grok | 73.1% | C |
| 8 | DeepSeek | 59.6% | C |
| 9 | Mistral | 48.2% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 15.2% | C |
Each model gives a low / base / high case for every year from 2027 to 2100. The "consensus" below is the trimmed mean of the base cases — we drop the top and bottom predictions and average the rest, which keeps a single outlier (looking at you, Gemini) from skewing the picture. The most bullish and most conservative columns show the widest views in the room.
| Year | Consensus | Most Bullish | Most Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $138,750 | Grok · $180,000 | Llama · $80,000 |
| 2030 | $250,625 | Gemini · $600,000 | Llama · $150,000 |
| 2035 | $475,000 | Grok · $700,000 | Perplexity · $300,000 |
| 2040 | $876,250 | Gemini · $1.60M | Perplexity · $450,000 |
| 2050 | $2.27M | Gemini · $15.00M | Mistral · $220,000 |
Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin block reward halves — cutting new BTC supply in half overnight. The last halving was April 2024, dropping the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, the year following a halving has produced major bull runs as supply tightens. The next one is estimated for March 2028.
|
Month Start
$76,286
|
Month End
$72,246
|
Month Change
-5.3%
|
| Model · Year | From | To | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral · 2050 | $20,000 | $220,000 | ▲ 1000.0% |
| Claude · 2050 | $1.22M | $5.20M | ▲ 326.2% |
| Command R · 2050 | $620,000 | $1.25M | ▲ 101.6% |
| ChatGPT · 2050 | $2.20M | $1,500 | ▼ 99.9% |
| Perplexity · 2050 | $110.00M | $1.00M | ▼ 99.1% |
| ChatGPT · 2040 | $1.10M | $15,000 | ▼ 98.6% |
| Perplexity · 2040 | $5.50M | $450,000 | ▼ 91.8% |
| ChatGPT · 2035 | $600,000 | $60,000 | ▼ 90.0% |
| Year | Consensus | Multiple from today |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $138,750 | 1.9x |
| 2030 | $250,625 | 3.5x |
| 2035 | $475,000 | 6.6x |
| 2040 | $876,250 | 12.1x |
| 2050 | $2.27M | 31.4x |
| Model | Variance | Unique values |
|---|---|---|
| Qwen | 0.0% Stable | 1 / 59 days |
| Command R | 2.7% Stable | 2 / 62 days |
| DeepSeek | 14.0% Moderate | 8 / 62 days |
| Grok | 15.3% Moderate | 27 / 62 days |
| Llama | 20.3% Volatile | 8 / 51 days |
| Claude | 24.9% Volatile | 15 / 62 days |
| ChatGPT | 28.2% Volatile | 10 / 62 days |
| Gemini | 28.9% Volatile | 12 / 62 days |
| Mistral | 35.9% Volatile | 19 / 60 days |
| Perplexity | 36.2% Volatile | 18 / 60 days |
Latest predictions as of 2026-06-01 — graded automatically on target date
|
Gemini
$170,000
|
Grok
$105,000
|
DeepSeek
$88,000
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
|
Perplexity
$80,000
|
Mistral
$78,000
|
Claude
$68,500
|
Command R
$65,000
|
Llama
$42,000
|
|
Gemini
$150,000
|
Grok
$125,000
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
|
Command R
$85,000
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
|
DeepSeek
$82,000
|
Mistral
$82,000
|
Perplexity
$77,000
|
Claude
$68,000
|
Llama
$42,000
|
|
Gemini
$150,000
|
Grok
$145,000
|
DeepSeek
$95,000
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
|
Command R
$85,000
|
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
Mistral
$82,000
|
Perplexity
$78,600
|
Llama
$62,000
|
Claude
$58,000
|
|
DeepSeek
$125,000
|
Grok
$125,000
|
Gemini
$120,000
|
Llama
$120,000
|
Claude
$95,000
|
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
|
Command R
$85,000
|
Qwen
$85,000
|
Mistral
$80,000
|
Perplexity
$78,000
|
|
Grok
$145,000
|
Perplexity
$128,000
|
Mistral
$125,000
|
Command R
$120,000
|
Llama
$120,000
|
|
Qwen
$120,000
|
DeepSeek
$120,000
|
Claude
$92,000
|
ChatGPT
$85,000
|
Gemini
$85,000
|
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