July 2026
AI Predicts Bitcoin
July 2026 Report |
Claude dominated July's accuracy leaderboard at 90.5% — well clear of the rest of the field. Gemini remains the most controversial voice — its 2030 base case sits 175% above the AI consensus of $272,500. Bitcoin climbed from $58,566 to $63,045 across the month — a +7.6% move. And the next halving is now just 603 days away (~20 months) — sell pressure keeps tightening as the cycle progresses.
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🏆 Model of the Month
Who's leading on accuracy
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📊 Leaderboard
All 10 models ranked
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🎯 AI Consensus
Predictions for 2027–2050
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⛏ Halving Countdown
Days until next halving
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Every day at 06:00 UTC each model gets the same prompt: predict where BTC will be in 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days. Once the actual price arrives, we score them. July's winner pulled away from the pack — here's how the leaderboard ended the month.
| 🏆 |
Model of the month
Claude
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90.5%
B
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Accuracy is calculated as 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). A score of 95% means the prediction was within ~5% of the real price on the target day. We grade A (95%+), B (85–95%), and C (below 85%). 30/90/180/360-day scores unlock progressively as predictions reach their target dates — first 30-day scores unlock May 1.
7-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Claude | 90.5% | B |
| 🥈 | Perplexity | 88.9% | B |
| 🥉 | ChatGPT | 75.2% | C |
| 4 | Qwen | 75.1% | C |
| 5 | DeepSeek | 72.4% | C |
| 6 | Command R | 68.9% | C |
| 7 | Llama | 62.9% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 52.2% | C |
| 9 | Grok | 35.4% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | -3.0% | C |
30-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Claude | 91.5% | B |
| 🥈 | Perplexity | 76.6% | C |
| 🥉 | Command R | 76.5% | C |
| 4 | ChatGPT | 74.4% | C |
| 5 | Qwen | 74.3% | C |
| 6 | Llama | 70.2% | C |
| 7 | DeepSeek | 59.2% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 28.9% | C |
| 9 | Grok | 25.6% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | -1.4% | C |
90-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Llama | 94.2% | B |
| 🥈 | Claude | 92.3% | B |
| 🥉 | ChatGPT | 65.9% | C |
| 4 | Command R | 65.9% | C |
| 5 | Qwen | 65.9% | C |
| 6 | Perplexity | 54.5% | C |
| 7 | Grok | 41.4% | C |
| 8 | DeepSeek | 22.6% | C |
| 9 | Mistral | 12.8% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | -5.2% | C |
Each model gives a low / base / high case for every year from 2027 to 2100. The "consensus" below is the trimmed mean of the base cases — we drop the top and bottom predictions and average the rest, which keeps a single outlier (looking at you, Gemini) from skewing the picture. The most bullish and most conservative columns show the widest views in the room.
| Year | Consensus | Most Bullish | Most Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $138,750 | DeepSeek · $200,000 | Perplexity · $101,294 |
| 2030 | $272,500 | Gemini · $750,000 | Grok · $180,000 |
| 2035 | $536,250 | Mistral · $2.00M | Grok · $300,000 |
| 2040 | $1.02M | Mistral · $10.00M | Command R · $420,000 |
| 2050 | $2.28M | Claude · $8.90M | Mistral · $25,000 |
Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin block reward halves — cutting new BTC supply in half overnight. The last halving was April 2024, dropping the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, the year following a halving has produced major bull runs as supply tightens. The next one is estimated for March 2028.
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Month Start
$58,566
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Month End
$63,045
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Month Change
+7.6%
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| Model · Year | From | To | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT · 2050 | $5,000 | $1.30M | ▲ 25900.0% |
| ChatGPT · 2040 | $40,000 | $800,000 | ▲ 1900.0% |
| Mistral · 2040 | $22,000 | $380,000 | ▲ 1627.3% |
| Mistral · 2035 | $40,000 | $280,000 | ▲ 600.0% |
| ChatGPT · 2035 | $90,000 | $550,000 | ▲ 511.1% |
| Mistral · 2030 | $65,000 | $350,000 | ▲ 438.5% |
| Qwen · 2050 | $1.30M | $5.50M | ▲ 323.1% |
| DeepSeek · 2050 | $1.10M | $3.50M | ▲ 218.2% |
| Year | Consensus | Multiple from today |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $138,750 | 2.2x |
| 2030 | $272,500 | 4.3x |
| 2035 | $536,250 | 8.5x |
| 2040 | $1.02M | 16.2x |
| 2050 | $2.28M | 36.2x |
| Model | Variance | Unique values |
|---|---|---|
| Command R | 2.2% Stable | 2 / 123 days |
| DeepSeek | 12.5% Moderate | 11 / 121 days |
| Perplexity | 17.3% Moderate | 6 / 34 days |
| Grok | 22.1% Volatile | 38 / 123 days |
| Llama | 23.0% Volatile | 11 / 112 days |
| Claude | 27.1% Volatile | 21 / 123 days |
| ChatGPT | 28.4% Volatile | 12 / 123 days |
| Gemini | 30.2% Volatile | 18 / 120 days |
| Mistral | 38.2% Volatile | 25 / 121 days |
Latest predictions as of 2026-08-01 — graded automatically on target date
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DeepSeek
$120,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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Grok
$105,000
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Qwen
$85,000
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Mistral
$68,000
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Perplexity
$66,000
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Claude
$65,000
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Command R
$45,000
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ChatGPT
$35,000
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Llama
$28,000
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Grok
$125,000
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Mistral
$125,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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DeepSeek
$100,000
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Qwen
$85,000
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Perplexity
$66,000
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Claude
$65,000
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ChatGPT
$60,000
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Command R
$50,000
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Llama
$40,000
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Grok
$135,000
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Mistral
$125,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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Perplexity
$110,000
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DeepSeek
$92,000
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Qwen
$85,000
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Claude
$72,500
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ChatGPT
$50,000
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Command R
$45,000
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Llama
$40,000
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Grok
$175,000
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Gemini
$150,000
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Mistral
$150,000
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Perplexity
$140,000
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Qwen
$125,000
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Command R
$120,000
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DeepSeek
$85,000
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Claude
$65,000
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ChatGPT
$60,000
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Llama
$40,000
|
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DeepSeek
$180,000
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Grok
$150,000
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Mistral
$125,000
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Qwen
$125,000
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Command R
$120,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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Perplexity
$101,294
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Claude
$78,000
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ChatGPT
$50,000
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Llama
$50,000
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