August 2026
AI Predicts Bitcoin
August 2026 Report |
Perplexity dominated August's accuracy leaderboard at 89.8% — well clear of the rest of the field. Llama remains the most controversial voice — its 2030 base case sits 45% below the AI consensus of $271,250. Bitcoin climbed from $62,820 to $77,926 across the month — a +24.0% move. And the next halving is now just 572 days away (~19 months) — sell pressure keeps tightening as the cycle progresses.
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🏆 Model of the Month
Who's leading on accuracy
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📊 Leaderboard
All 10 models ranked
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🎯 AI Consensus
Predictions for 2027–2050
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⛏ Halving Countdown
Days until next halving
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Every day at 06:00 UTC each model gets the same prompt: predict where BTC will be in 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days. Once the actual price arrives, we score them. August's winner pulled away from the pack — here's how the leaderboard ended the month.
| 🏆 |
Model of the month
Perplexity
|
89.8%
B
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Accuracy is calculated as 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). A score of 95% means the prediction was within ~5% of the real price on the target day. We grade A (95%+), B (85–95%), and C (below 85%). 30/90/180/360-day scores unlock progressively as predictions reach their target dates — first 30-day scores unlock May 1.
7-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Perplexity | 89.8% | B |
| 🥈 | Claude | 89.5% | B |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 74.7% | C |
| 4 | ChatGPT | 71.0% | C |
| 5 | DeepSeek | 67.5% | C |
| 6 | Command R | 63.6% | C |
| 7 | Llama | 61.5% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 46.2% | C |
| 9 | Grok | 28.4% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 9.5% | C |
30-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Claude | 90.6% | B |
| 🥈 | Perplexity | 78.9% | C |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 74.4% | C |
| 4 | Command R | 72.4% | C |
| 5 | ChatGPT | 72.3% | C |
| 6 | Llama | 69.6% | C |
| 7 | DeepSeek | 58.5% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 26.7% | C |
| 9 | Grok | 20.0% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 4.4% | C |
90-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Claude | 91.1% | B |
| 🥈 | Llama | 89.7% | B |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 71.1% | C |
| 4 | ChatGPT | 71.1% | C |
| 5 | Command R | 71.1% | C |
| 6 | Perplexity | 64.3% | C |
| 7 | DeepSeek | 43.6% | C |
| 8 | Grok | 33.4% | C |
| 9 | Mistral | 19.8% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 0.5% | C |
Each model gives a low / base / high case for every year from 2027 to 2100. The "consensus" below is the trimmed mean of the base cases — we drop the top and bottom predictions and average the rest, which keeps a single outlier (looking at you, Gemini) from skewing the picture. The most bullish and most conservative columns show the widest views in the room.
| Year | Consensus | Most Bullish | Most Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $145,625 | Claude · $180,000 | Llama · $80,000 |
| 2030 | $271,250 | ChatGPT · $300,000 | Llama · $150,000 |
| 2035 | $603,750 | Qwen · $900,000 | Command R · $320,000 |
| 2040 | $1.16M | DeepSeek · $2.40M | Command R · $420,000 |
| 2050 | $2.84M | DeepSeek · $14.00M | Mistral · $250,000 |
Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin block reward halves — cutting new BTC supply in half overnight. The last halving was April 2024, dropping the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, the year following a halving has produced major bull runs as supply tightens. The next one is estimated for March 2028.
|
Month Start
$62,820
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Month End
$77,926
|
Month Change
+24.0%
|
| Model · Year | From | To | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral · 2050 | $25,000 | $400,000 | ▲ 1500.0% |
| Grok · 2050 | $950,000 | $6.00M | ▲ 531.6% |
| Perplexity · 2050 | $675,000 | $2.25M | ▲ 233.3% |
| DeepSeek · 2050 | $3.80M | $10.00M | ▲ 163.2% |
| Grok · 2040 | $450,000 | $1.00M | ▲ 122.2% |
| Gemini · 2040 | $1.20M | $2.50M | ▲ 108.3% |
| Claude · 2050 | $8.90M | $800,000 | ▼ 91.0% |
| Mistral · 2040 | $10.00M | $1.10M | ▼ 89.0% |
| Year | Consensus | Multiple from today |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $145,625 | 1.9x |
| 2030 | $271,250 | 3.5x |
| 2035 | $603,750 | 7.7x |
| 2040 | $1.16M | 14.8x |
| 2050 | $2.84M | 36.4x |
| Model | Variance | Unique values |
|---|---|---|
| Command R | 2.2% Stable | 2 / 154 days |
| DeepSeek | 17.0% Moderate | 26 / 153 days |
| Llama | 20.1% Volatile | 11 / 81 days |
| Grok | 24.4% Volatile | 43 / 154 days |
| Claude | 26.8% Volatile | 22 / 154 days |
| ChatGPT | 28.2% Volatile | 12 / 154 days |
| Gemini | 28.6% Volatile | 19 / 150 days |
Latest predictions as of 2026-09-01 — graded automatically on target date
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Grok
$108,000
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Command R
$100,000
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DeepSeek
$100,000
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Qwen
$85,000
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Perplexity
$78,800
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Gemini
$75,000
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Mistral
$75,000
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Claude
$65,000
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Llama
$50,000
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ChatGPT
$30,000
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DeepSeek
$125,000
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Grok
$125,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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Mistral
$120,000
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Perplexity
$85,000
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Qwen
$85,000
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Claude
$68,000
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ChatGPT
$60,000
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Command R
$50,000
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Llama
$45,000
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Grok
$145,000
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Qwen
$125,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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Claude
$85,000
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Mistral
$85,000
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DeepSeek
$82,000
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Perplexity
$72,000
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Command R
$50,000
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Llama
$50,000
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ChatGPT
$45,000
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Gemini
$185,000
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Mistral
$150,000
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Qwen
$125,000
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Command R
$120,000
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Grok
$115,000
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Perplexity
$100,000
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DeepSeek
$95,000
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Claude
$85,000
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ChatGPT
$50,000
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Llama
$40,000
|
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Grok
$175,000
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Mistral
$150,000
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Perplexity
$150,000
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Qwen
$125,000
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Gemini
$120,000
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DeepSeek
$105,000
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Claude
$72,500
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ChatGPT
$50,000
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Command R
$50,000
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Llama
$50,000
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