September 2026
AI Predicts Bitcoin
September 2026 Report |
Perplexity dominated September's accuracy leaderboard at 90.8% — well clear of the rest of the field. Mistral remains the most controversial voice — its 2030 base case sits 86% below the AI consensus of $243,375. Bitcoin climbed from $78,552 to $83,827 across the month — a +6.7% move. And the next halving is now just 542 days away (~18 months) — sell pressure keeps tightening as the cycle progresses.
This is a first: 180-day accuracy scores just unlocked 3 days ago. Each model now has 4 graded predictions in this bracket — early data, but the longer-horizon leaderboard has begun.
|
🏆 Model of the Month
Who's leading on accuracy
|
📊 Leaderboard
All 10 models ranked
|
|
🎯 AI Consensus
Predictions for 2027–2050
|
⛏ Halving Countdown
Days until next halving
|
Every day at 06:00 UTC each model gets the same prompt: predict where BTC will be in 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days. Once the actual price arrives, we score them. September's winner pulled away from the pack — here's how the leaderboard ended the month.
| 🏆 |
Model of the month
Perplexity
|
90.8%
B
|
Accuracy is calculated as 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). A score of 95% means the prediction was within ~5% of the real price on the target day. We grade A (95%+), B (85–95%), and C (below 85%). 30/90/180/360-day scores unlock progressively as predictions reach their target dates — first 30-day scores unlock May 1.
7-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Perplexity | 90.8% | B |
| 🥈 | Claude | 85.9% | B |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 76.9% | C |
| 4 | DeepSeek | 67.5% | C |
| 5 | ChatGPT | 66.5% | C |
| 6 | Llama | 60.2% | C |
| 7 | Command R | 58.0% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 47.6% | C |
| 9 | Grok | 30.6% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 21.4% | C |
30-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Claude | 88.7% | B |
| 🥈 | Perplexity | 81.0% | C |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 77.9% | C |
| 4 | ChatGPT | 69.2% | C |
| 5 | Command R | 67.9% | C |
| 6 | Llama | 67.2% | C |
| 7 | DeepSeek | 57.9% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 31.3% | C |
| 9 | Grok | 20.5% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 16.0% | C |
90-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Claude | 88.7% | B |
| 🥈 | Llama | 83.8% | C |
| 🥉 | Qwen | 78.5% | C |
| 4 | Command R | 77.5% | C |
| 5 | ChatGPT | 77.3% | C |
| 6 | Perplexity | 74.2% | C |
| 7 | DeepSeek | 54.8% | C |
| 8 | Grok | 35.4% | C |
| 9 | Mistral | 30.9% | C |
| 10 | Gemini | 13.8% | C |
180-day Leaderboard
| 🥇 | Perplexity | 99.1% | A |
| 🥈 | Command R | 98.4% | A |
| 🥉 | ChatGPT | 98.4% | A |
| 4 | Qwen | 98.4% | A |
| 5 | Llama | 83.2% | C |
| 6 | Claude | 80.4% | C |
| 7 | Grok | 76.0% | C |
| 8 | Mistral | 65.5% | C |
| 9 | Gemini | 59.5% | C |
| 10 | DeepSeek | 50.5% | C |
Each model gives a low / base / high case for every year from 2027 to 2100. The "consensus" below is the trimmed mean of the base cases — we drop the top and bottom predictions and average the rest, which keeps a single outlier (looking at you, Gemini) from skewing the picture. The most bullish and most conservative columns show the widest views in the room.
| Year | Consensus | Most Bullish | Most Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $142,500 | Grok · $180,000 | Mistral · $50,000 |
| 2030 | $243,375 | Perplexity · $350,000 | Mistral · $35,000 |
| 2035 | $480,250 | Qwen · $900,000 | Mistral · $15,000 |
| 2040 | $817,875 | Qwen · $2.10M | Command R · $420,000 |
| 2050 | $1.89M | Gemini · $8.00M | Mistral · $280,000 |
Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin block reward halves — cutting new BTC supply in half overnight. The last halving was April 2024, dropping the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, the year following a halving has produced major bull runs as supply tightens. The next one is estimated for March 2028.
|
Month Start
$78,552
|
Month End
$83,827
|
Month Change
+6.7%
|
| Model · Year | From | To | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini · 2050 | $2.00M | $5.20M | ▲ 160.0% |
| Mistral · 2035 | $450,000 | $14,000 | ▼ 96.9% |
| DeepSeek · 2050 | $14.00M | $1.22M | ▼ 91.3% |
| Mistral · 2030 | $220,000 | $30,000 | ▼ 86.4% |
| Gemini · 2030 | $250,000 | $450,000 | ▲ 80.0% |
| Grok · 2050 | $6.00M | $1.30M | ▼ 78.3% |
| DeepSeek · 2040 | $2.40M | $525,000 | ▼ 78.1% |
| Mistral · 2050 | $250,000 | $60,000 | ▼ 76.0% |
| Year | Consensus | Multiple from today |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $142,500 | 1.7x |
| 2030 | $243,375 | 2.9x |
| 2035 | $480,250 | 5.7x |
| 2040 | $817,875 | 9.8x |
| 2050 | $1.89M | 22.6x |
| Model | Variance | Unique values |
|---|---|---|
| Command R | 2.1% Stable | 2 / 184 days |
| DeepSeek | 18.2% Moderate | 42 / 183 days |
| Grok | 18.8% Moderate | 33 / 85 days |
| Claude | 27.0% Volatile | 22 / 184 days |
| ChatGPT | 27.4% Volatile | 13 / 184 days |
| Gemini | 28.6% Volatile | 19 / 180 days |
Latest predictions as of 2026-10-01 — graded automatically on target date
|
Grok
$150,000
|
Mistral
$125,000
|
Qwen
$125,000
|
DeepSeek
$120,000
|
Perplexity
$84,000
|
|
Claude
$67,500
|
Gemini
$60,000
|
Llama
$45,000
|
ChatGPT
$30,000
|
Command R
$25,000
|
|
Grok
$175,000
|
Mistral
$125,000
|
Qwen
$125,000
|
Gemini
$120,000
|
DeepSeek
$110,000
|
|
Perplexity
$83,709
|
ChatGPT
$50,000
|
Command R
$50,000
|
Llama
$50,000
|
Claude
$42,000
|
|
Gemini
$180,000
|
Grok
$145,000
|
Qwen
$125,000
|
DeepSeek
$120,000
|
Mistral
$120,000
|
|
Perplexity
$100,000
|
Claude
$89,000
|
ChatGPT
$50,000
|
Command R
$50,000
|
Llama
$50,000
|
|
Grok
$250,000
|
Mistral
$150,000
|
Perplexity
$130,000
|
Qwen
$125,000
|
Command R
$120,000
|
|
Gemini
$120,000
|
Claude
$85,000
|
DeepSeek
$80,000
|
ChatGPT
$50,000
|
Llama
$50,000
|
|
Mistral
$250,000
|
Perplexity
$180,000
|
Grok
$145,000
|
Qwen
$125,000
|
DeepSeek
$120,000
|
|
Gemini
$120,000
|
Claude
$85,000
|
ChatGPT
$50,000
|
Command R
$50,000
|
Llama
$50,000
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